Nike, Inc.(NKE) - Stock detail

• Conservative (1 Month): $39 - $42. Driven by continued negative sentiment, potential follow-through selling, and a test of the recent $42 low. A break below could see a quick move toward the $39 area.
• Baseline (3 Months): $36 - $40. This aligns with the fundamental re-rating. As the market digests the lower earnings trajectory, the P/E multiple compresses toward 22-25. The midpoint of the fundamental report’s range ($36) is the primary target.
• Optimistic (6 Months): $44 - $48. This scenario requires the company to show early signs of turnaround success, stabilizing earnings. The major resistance at the 20-day and 60-day MAs and the HSBC target of $48 would cap any rally. This is the upside scenario, not the expected one.

Primary 6-Month Target Price: $36.00 (Fundamental re-rating target). Near-Term (1 Month) Support/Resistance:

• Resistance: $47.50 (20-day MA), then $48 (HSBC target).
• Critical Support: $42.09 (Recent low). A break below targets $39.

1. Exit Position: Sell existing holdings at market.
2. Re-Entry Plan: Do not consider re-entering until there is fundamental confirmation. This means either:
   • The stock trades down to the $33-$38 fundamental value range, or
   • The company reports a quarter showing revenue re-acceleration and net income stabilization, breaking the current trend of double-digit declines.
3. Monitor List: Place NKE on a watchlist. Key levels to watch for a potential change in thesis are a sustained break above the 20-day MA (~$47.50) on strong volume and a closing of the early-April gap near $52.