• MA_10: $966.51
• MA_20: $1004.03
• MA_60: $1001.00 The current price of $975.69 is trading below both the critical 20-day ($1004.03) and 60-day ($1001.00) Simple Moving Averages. This indicates a bearish medium-term trend. However, the price is currently above the shorter-term 5-day and 10-day MAs, suggesting a potential short-term consolidation or minor rebound attempt within the larger downtrend. The hierarchy (20 > 60 > 5 > 10) shows the longer-term averages are still above the shorter ones, but the price action is challenging this structure from below.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):

• EMA_5: $975.15
• EMA_10: $978.63
• EMA_20: $989.63 The price is sandwiched between the 5-day and 10-day EMAs, indicating indecision in the very near term. Crucially, it remains well below the 20-day EMA ($989.63), which acts as a significant resistance level and confirms the short-to-medium-term bearish pressure.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

• MACD Line: -12.3541
• Signal Line: -10.0899
• Histogram (MACDH): -2.2642 The MACD line is deep in negative territory and below its signal line, generating a clear bearish signal. The negative histogram confirms bearish momentum is present. While the histogram’s value is not at an extreme low, it shows no signs of a bullish crossover or convergence at this moment.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

• RSI (14-period): 43.78
• RSI (6-period): 45.76 Both RSI readings are in the neutral zone, leaning towards the lower half. An RSI of 43.78 suggests the stock is neither oversold nor overbought but shows a slight bearish bias. There is room for further downside before reaching oversold levels (typically <30), which limits the immediate bullish case based on momentum exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands:

• Upper Band: $1095.56
• Middle Band (20-day MA): $1004.03
• Lower Band: $912.51 The current price ($975.69) is trading notably below the middle band ($1004.03), indicating the stock is in a bearish phase. The price is not near the lower band ($912.51), suggesting there is no immediate “oversold bounce” signal from this indicator. The width of the bands (approx. $183) indicates elevated volatility, which is consistent with the recent price swings observed in the data.

KDJ Oscillator:

• K Value: 54.67
• D Value: 42.61
• J Value: 78.77 The K value has crossed above the D value, which can be a short-term bullish signal. However, the J value at 78.77 is approaching overbought territory for this fast oscillator. This suggests the recent bounce from the lows around $946 (2026-06-01) may be losing steam in the short term, creating a potential for a pullback.

Other Key Indicators:

• ATR (Average True Range): $22.16. This quantifies the current level of volatility. A high ATR confirms the market is experiencing significant daily price swings, increasing risk.
• Williams %R: -64.10. This is in the neutral-to-oversold zone but not at an extreme (<-80), suggesting selling pressure may not be fully exhausted.
• ADX (Average Directional Index): 13.04. A value below 20 indicates a weak or non-existent trend. This is a critical finding: despite the bearish price structure, the trend strength itself is weak, implying the current downtrend may be unstable and prone to reversals or range-bound action.

📉 Price Trend Analysis

Recent Price Action: Analyzing the provided 60-day data, COST experienced a significant rally from late March to mid-May 2026, peaking at $1096.50 on 2026-05-19. This was followed by a sharp and volatile correction. The decline accelerated dramatically on 2026-05-29 with a high-volume drop to $956.32. Since that low, the stock has been attempting to base and recover, trading between approximately $946 and $990 over the last two weeks. The close on 2026-06-11 at $975.69 represents a rejection from the session’s high of $989.12, forming a bearish “shooting star” like candlestick on above-average volume, indicating selling pressure near the $990 resistance zone.

Support and Resistance Levels:

• Immediate Resistance: The $985-$995 zone has acted as a cap multiple times in early June (06-04, 06-10, 06-11). The declining 20-day EMA (~$990) reinforces this area.
• Key Resistance: The psychological $1000 level and the 20-day/60-day SMA cluster around $1002-$1004 form a formidable supply zone. A break above this is needed to negate the immediate bearish structure.
• Immediate Support: The recent swing low around $946.11 (2026-06-01) is the primary support. The Bollinger Lower Band at ~$912.51 provides a longer-term downside target if the downtrend resumes.
• Secondary Support: The $960-$970 area provided a base in early June and will be watched closely.

Volume Analysis: Volume spiked dramatically to over 7 million shares on 2026-05-29 during the major sell-off, confirming capitulation. Recent volume, while elevated compared to the calm period in April, has moderated but remains above the 1.5-2 million share average seen during the prior consolidation. The higher volume on down days (e.g., 06-05, 06-11) compared to up days suggests distribution is still occurring, with sellers more aggressive than buyers.

Chip Distribution Analysis (Estimated):

• Methodology Note: The provided chip distribution is an estimate based on statistical modeling of historical OHLC and turnover data. It uses a volume-based proxy for turnover rate to simulate cost concentrations. It should not be interpreted as exact shareholder holding data.
• Interpretation: The latest data shows only 40.82% of estimated holders are in profit at the current price ($975.69), with an average cost basis of $978.39. This means a majority (~59%) of holders are sitting on paper losses, which can create overhead supply (resistance) as prices rise towards their break-even points.
• Concentration: The 70% cost concentration range is tight ($960.13 to $1007.38, width of ~2.4%), indicating a high degree of cost consensus among recent traders. The current price sits near the middle of this dense zone, suggesting a period of equilibrium and potential for a directional breakout. The 90% concentration range is wider ($948.32 to $1044.96), with the current price near its lower half.

💭 Investment Recommendations

Synthesis and Outlook: The technical picture for Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is bearish in the medium-term but showing signs of short-term stabilization. The stock is trading below its key moving averages (20-day and 60-day), with bearish MACD momentum. However, the very weak ADX (13.04) warns that the downtrend lacks strong directional force and could easily transition into a sideways consolidation. The estimated chip distribution shows the market is in a state of equilibrium, with the price trapped within a high-density cost zone.

Recommendation: HOLD (with a Cautious Bias).

• For Existing Shareholders: A Hold stance is advised. Selling here, near the lower end of the recent trading range and with a majority of holders underwater, may realize losses prematurely. However, set a strict stop-loss below the recent $946 support, as a break lower could target the $912-$920 area (Bollinger Lower Band).
• For Potential Buyers: Do not buy at current levels. The technical setup is not compelling for new long entries. The risk/reward is unfavorable with clear resistance overhead at $990 and $1004. A more prudent approach would be to wait for either:
  1. A clear bullish reversal signal, such as a strong volume break above the $1004 (20-day SMA) resistance, or
  2. A deeper decline into oversold territory (e.g., RSI<30, price near $912 Lower Band) to seek a better entry point for a counter-trend bounce.

Key Risk Warnings:

1. Market Risk: The high ATR ($22.16) signifies elevated volatility. Positions can experience significant intraday swings.
2. Trend Failure Risk: The weak ADX indicates the current trend is fragile. A sudden shift in market sentiment or company-specific news could trigger a sharp reversal, making both long and short positions risky.
3. Resistance Risk: The dense overhead resistance between $985-$1004, aligned with the average cost basis and key moving averages, presents a significant hurdle for any rally.
4. Data Limitation: The chip distribution analysis is an estimate, not a precise map of holdings. Investment decisions should not rely solely on this model.
5. Broader Market: This analysis is purely technical. Any investment decision must also consider fundamental factors (earnings, membership trends, macro conditions) and overall US market direction, which are not within the scope of this report.

Conclusion: COST is in a corrective phase following a strong prior advance. The technical evidence points towards continued bearish pressure in the near term, but within a context of weakening trend momentum. The recommended course of action is patience: holders should maintain positions with defined risk management, while prospective buyers should wait for a more definitive and lower-risk technical setup before committing capital. ✅ Analysis Complete