The moving average structure reveals a bearish alignment indicative of a downtrend.

• MA_5: $72.79
• MA_10: $72.77
• MA_20: $74.20
• MA_60: $76.22
• Summary: The price ($73.90) is currently trading below the critical 20-day ($74.20) and 60-day ($76.22) moving averages. The alignment is 60-day > 20-day > 5-day > 10-day, which is a classic bearish sequence. The 5-day and 10-day MAs are nearly converged just below the current price, suggesting a potential short-term equilibrium point before the next directional move. The significant gap between the price and the 60-day MA highlights the medium-term downtrend’s strength.

Momentum Indicators (MACD & RSI)

Momentum indicators show a market in consolidation with weak bullish divergence.

• MACD: -1.1895
• MACD Signal Line: -1.1934
• MACD Histogram (MACDH): +0.0039 The MACD line remains deep in negative territory, confirming the prevailing bearish momentum. However, the histogram has turned positive (0.0039), indicating that the bearish momentum is decelerating. This is a classic sign of a potential trend exhaustion or a near-term consolidation phase. It is not yet a bullish crossover signal, but it warrants close monitoring.
• RSI (14-period): 46.67
• RSI (6-period): 56.64 The primary 14-period RSI at 46.67 is in neutral territory, leaning slightly bearish but not oversold. The shorter-term 6-period RSI at 56.64 is in neutral-bullish territory. This divergence suggests that while the medium-term trend is weak, there has been recent short-term buying pressure, as seen in the price recovery from the low of $71.50 on 2026-06-08 to $73.90 on 2026-06-11.

Volatility & Bands (Bollinger Bands & ATR)

• Bollinger Bands:
  • Upper Band: $77.60
  • Middle Band (20-day MA): $74.20
  • Lower Band: $70.80 The current price ($73.90) is trading just below the middle band, having recently bounced from near the lower band ($70.80). This positioning suggests the stock is attempting to recover from an oversold condition within the band. The band width (Upper - Lower = $6.80) indicates moderate volatility. A sustained move above the middle band ($74.20) would be needed to signal a shift towards a bullish near-term bias.
• Average True Range (ATR): 1.78 The ATR value of $1.78 quantifies the average daily trading range. This provides a practical measure for setting stop-loss levels (e.g., 1.5x ATR = ~$2.67 below an entry point).

Oscillators (KDJ, Williams %R, CCI)

• KDJ: K=44.93, D=30.70, J=73.39 The J-line (73.39) has surged above the overbought threshold of 80 recently and is now receding, while the K-line (44.93) is rising from oversold levels. The K line has just crossed above the D line (30.70), generating a bullish crossover signal. This supports the short-term bounce narrative.
• Williams %R (14): -49.48 This value is in the neutral zone (between -20 and -80), indicating neither an overbought nor oversold condition from this indicator’s perspective.
• CCI (20): 12.84 The Commodity Channel Index is also in neutral territory, confirming the lack of a strong directional impulse at the moment.

Volume Analysis

Volume activity provides critical context for price moves:

• The most significant volume spike occurred on 2026-05-06 (7.27M shares) on a large down day (close: $77.20, down from $81.67), indicating strong selling pressure and likely a capitulation event.
• The recent bounce from the June lows ($71.50 on 2026-06-08) has occurred on above-average volume (e.g., 4.82M shares on 2026-06-10 and 4.31M shares on 2026-06-11). This suggests the rally is being supported by genuine buying interest, increasing its credibility.
• The Money Flow Index (MFI) is reported as 0.47. This extremely low value (effectively 0) is atypical and may indicate a data anomaly or calculation issue. In a standard 14-period MFI, a value this low would suggest intense selling pressure, but this conflicts with the volume-supported price rise. Therefore, this MFI reading should be disregarded for this analysis.

📉 Price Trend Analysis

Recent Price Action & Key Levels: Examining the 60-day data, QSR established a multi-month high of $81.91 on 2026-05-05. This was followed by a sharp, high-volume decline, breaking below several key moving averages. The stock found a tentative low at $71.50 on 2026-06-08 and has since staged a three-day recovery to $73.90.

Support and Resistance Level Analysis:

• Immediate Resistance: The 20-day Moving Average at $74.20 and the Bollinger Middle Band at $74.20 converge to form a strong immediate resistance zone. A daily close above this level is crucial for the bounce to extend.
• Secondary Resistance: The zone between $76.00 - $77.00. This area acted as support in late April and now serves as resistance. The upper Bollinger Band at $77.60 also resides here.
• Major Resistance: The previous high zone around $81.00 - $82.00.
• Immediate Support: The recent low of $71.50 (2026-06-08) and the Bollinger Lower Band at $70.80.
• Secondary Support: The psychological level of $70.00.
• Major Support: The early April lows near $73.00 - $74.00, which have now been breached, turning this area into resistance.

Chip Distribution Analysis (Estimated): Methodology Note: The chip distribution is a statistical estimate based on historical OHLC and turnover data, not official exchange holdings. It uses volume-based proxies to model cost concentration.

• Average Cost: $73.19. The latest price ($73.90) is marginally above the estimated average cost, putting 66.86% of estimated holders in a profit. This creates a neutral-to-slightly-positive psychological backdrop, as most holders are not under immediate pressure to sell.
• 90% Cost Range: [$71.64, $78.96] with a concentration of 4.86%. This wide, low-concentration range suggests holders are dispersed across many price levels, with no extremely dense cost cluster that could act as a magnet for price.
• 70% Cost Range: [$72.08, $76.08] with a concentration of 2.70%. The current price sits near the lower edge of this core 70% holding range. A break below $72.08 could trigger increased selling from this core group.
• Trend: The 5-day average concentration (70%: 3.13%, 90%: 5.02%) shows that chips have been dispersing slightly (concentration decreasing) over the past week, typical of a consolidation or distribution phase after a decline.

💭 Investment Recommendations

Synthesis and Outlook: The technical picture for Restaurant Brands International (QSR) is one of a medium-term downtrend (price below 20-day and 60-day MAs) showing initial signs of a short-term counter-trend bounce. The decelerating bearish momentum (positive MACD histogram), bullish KDJ crossover, and volume-supported recovery from the $71.50 low are constructive. However, the bounce faces an immediate and significant test at the confluence of resistance around $74.20 (20-day MA).

Recommendation: HOLD (with a Cautiously Bullish Bias for Traders) For existing shareholders, this is not the time to panic sell. The stock is showing signs of stabilization after a significant correction. The risk/reward for adding new positions is improving but not yet compelling.

Actionable Plan:

1. For Holders: Maintain positions. A stop-loss could be placed below the recent swing low of $71.40, using the ATR for a buffer (e.g., $71.50 - $2.67 = ~$68.83).
2. For Potential Buyers (Aggressive): A confirmed daily close above $74.30 (clearing the 20-day MA) could be used as a tactical entry signal for a short-term trade, targeting the $76.00-$77.00 resistance zone. Initial stop-loss should be set below $71.50.
3. For Potential Buyers (Conservative): Wait for a more robust trend reversal signal, such as a bullish MACD line crossover above its signal line AND a price close above the 60-day MA (~$76.22). This would require more patience but would offer higher-probability entry.

Key Risk Warnings:

1. Trend Dominance: The primary intermediate trend remains down. Any bounce is currently classified as a correction within a downtrend until proven otherwise.
2. Resistance Cluster: The $74.20-$74.50 zone is a critical battleground. Failure to break above it could lead to a retest of the $71.50 support.
3. Broader Market Risk: This analysis is purely technical. Deterioration in broader market indices or negative company-specific news could invalidate the developing bullish short-term setup.
4. Chip Data Limitation: The chip distribution is an estimate. Actual institutional holding changes could differ and cause unexpected price movements.

In conclusion, QSR is at an inflection point. The weight of evidence suggests a Hold recommendation, with a bias to consider a Buy on a confirmed breakout above $74.20, targeting a move towards $76-77. The trade must be managed with strict risk controls due to the prevailing medium-term downtrend. ✅ Analysis Complete