US 13F institution ARK Investment Management LLC (CIK:0001697748) holdings data for Q4 2025 13F
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.75
Imminent supply overhang from CEO's share registration (304M shares) acts as a powerful near-term catalyst, occurring within a context of extreme valuation fragility (P/E 412), deteriorating fundamentals, and trendless, vulnerable price action. The probability of a downward move outweighs the potential for a breakout.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Confluence of strong fundamentals (>25% revenue growth), extreme bearish sentiment (Put/Call ratio 5.19), a clear imminent earnings catalyst, and technically defined risk creates a high-conviction asymmetric opportunity. Conservative risks are managed via position sizing and a strict stop-loss.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The decision is based on a fundamental inflection point (surpassing 100 million active accounts granting pricing power), bullish technical alignment (Golden Cross, price above all key moving averages), and recent analyst upgrades. Risks from high valuation and volatility are managed through disciplined entry, a stop-loss, and controlled position size.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.75
The Risk Management Committee recommends selling due to an asymmetric risk profile. A severe, company-specific $2.2B New York lawsuit creates an existential overhang not fully priced in, compounded by a rich valuation (P/E ~40x vs. fundamental value of $87-$121), declining earnings, and weak technicals showing distribution and overhead supply from underwater holders. The stock's high correlation to Bitcoin acts as a downside amplifier in this context.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Strong business fundamentals (56% revenue growth, expanding margins) justify maintaining exposure, but extreme valuation (Forward P/E 783, P/S 76) and weak technicals (ADX 4.82, 73% of traders underwater at $150) require active risk management. A conditional hold with defined entry/exit rules balances growth potential with valuation risk.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
Technical breakdown (11.3% drop on high volume, below all moving averages, 91% holders underwater) combined with dire fundamentals ($581.6M net loss, revenue down 90%) creates unfavorable risk/reward. Upcoming binary catalysts are low-probability events, and capital preservation is prioritized over speculative upside.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.8
The committee recommends selling due to extreme overvaluation (Forward P/E 250), severely overbought technicals (RSI >80, bearish MFI divergence), and concrete negative catalysts (Northland downgrade to $260, ARK selling, sector ETF breakdown). The high probability of a sharp correction outweighs the potential for further gains in the near term. Capital preservation is prioritized, with a plan to re-enter at a healthier valuation.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends a moderate-sized long position based on the confluence of a structural regulatory catalyst (PDT rule elimination), strong fundamentals (>50% revenue growth, 42% net margins), a high-conviction analyst target ($110), and a constructive technical pullback. While earnings present binary risk, the defined stop-loss at $79.50 manages downside, and the upside potential from a narrative re-rating justifies the action.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
Committee overrules aggressive and neutral stances due to extreme valuation (P/E 118), technical exhaustion (shooting star on high volume), and asymmetric risk from imminent high-expectation earnings event. Holding through earnings is a speculative gamble with downside significantly outweighing upside. Prudent action is to eliminate event risk and preserve capital.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends a full exit before Q1 2026 earnings due to an unacceptable risk-reward profile. Key factors include high debt (78.4% Debt/Assets), lack of profitability (-$245M net loss), rich valuation (P/S 7.43), weakening technicals (price below key MAs, bearish KDJ crossover), and a high-stakes binary earnings catalyst. Holding or trimming retains exposure to asymmetric downside risk with limited upside potential.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
The Risk Management Committee mandates a SELL based on an asymmetric risk profile skewed to the downside. Key factors include severe fundamental weaknesses (96% Debt-to-Asset ratio, negative equity, liquidity strain), imminent negative catalysts (Q1 2026 earnings risk, federal lawsuit), and a bearish technical structure (price below all key moving averages). Capital preservation is the primary objective, and holding exposes the position to unacceptable, high-probability downside risks.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The Risk Management Committee recommends BUY based on transformed fundamentals: $500M non-dilutive financing eliminates cash risk until 2029, BEAM-302's accelerated clinical pathway (skipping Phase II), and platform validation. Recent price weakness near key support presents an optimal entry point before H2 2026 catalyst cycle.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.82
The decision is based on severe fundamental deterioration (95.77% Debt/Assets, swing to net loss), immediate negative catalyst (class action lawsuit attacking core business), technical breakdown below all key moving averages, unsustainable valuation (Forward P/E 102.18), and competitive pressure from Tether. The conservative risk assessment aligns with the objective data, indicating high probability of further downside.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Stock is in a strong uptrend with excellent fundamentals (31% net income growth, $110.5B operating cash flow) and positive AI/cloud narrative, but is currently overbought (RSI 75.55) and trading at the upper end of its fair value range ahead of a high-impact earnings event. Active risk management via trailing stop-loss is recommended for existing positions, while new capital should wait for post-earnings price action.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.75
Convergence of catastrophic fundamentals (pre-revenue, -$618M net income, severe cash burn), bearish technical structure (price below key moving averages, weak momentum), and negative market sentiment ('sell the news' reaction to milestones) justifies a tactical short position. The downside target is clear while upside is limited by resistance.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
The committee recommends a full exit due to extreme overvaluation (P/E >500, P/S 18), a broken technical picture (death cross, 93% holders underwater), and the stock's failure to rally on positive catalysts like the $447M Space Force contract. The risk of multiple contraction and continued decline outweighs the limited, capped upside.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
The stock exhibits a strong bullish trend with institutional accumulation and a compelling long-term growth narrative in synthetic biology infrastructure. However, current price is overbought with extreme valuation (P/S 36) and high percentage of holders in profit, creating asymmetric risk. A disciplined approach of holding existing positions with a trailing stop-loss while waiting for a pullback for new entries balances trend participation with risk management.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
NVIDIA's exceptional fundamentals and dominant AI position support a long-term hold, but extreme valuation (forward P/E 64x) and overbought technicals (RSI 76) create high short-term risk. An active hold with risk management is recommended over new purchases at current price.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
Partial sale (40-50%) recommended due to overvaluation (price 4.4% above fair value upper bound), extreme technical overbought signals (RSI 78.65, CCI 217), and skewed risk-reward. Maintains exposure to long-term AI growth while locking in profits and preparing for better entry.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Strategic investments explain net income decline; Uber partnership is a significant multi-quarter catalyst; bullish technical structure with manageable risk via scaled entry and tight stop-loss.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.75
Technical breakdown with 18% drop in 5 days, high-volume distribution indicating institutional selling, sector vulnerability demonstrated by 5.4% drop on Thermo Fisher news, and fundamental mismatch with 4.39x P/S ratio despite only 5.25% revenue growth and negative profitability.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends a disciplined, conditional Hold due to high leverage (62.9% debt-to-asset), premium valuation, and binary earnings risk. For existing holders, maintain with a stop-loss at $124.50 and consider partial profit-taking near resistance. For new capital, wait for a confirmed breakout above $135.50 on volume post-earnings or a pullback to $118-$120 support.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
The market is in a consolidation phase awaiting a catalyst. Price is compressed between major resistance (~$26.27) and strong support ($24.50-$25.00). A tactical Hold with defined triggers is recommended: maintain existing positions with a tightened stop-loss, wait for either a confirmed breakout above $26.50 or a pullback to support before new entry.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.75
Convergence of high-impact catalyst (blocked $2B AI acquisition by China) with vulnerable market positioning (91.95% shareholders in profit) creates asymmetric downside risk ahead of earnings. Material geopolitical event triggers profit-taking pressure amid fundamental deterioration (declining net income).
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends HOLD for existing positions due to Deere's underlying quality (high ROE, resolved legal overhang) and defined downside risk via a $515 stop-loss. However, a BUY is not advised for new capital as the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with premium valuation, negative earnings momentum, and significant overhead resistance. New entries should wait for either a pullback to strong support ($515-$530) or a confirmed technical reversal above the 60-day MA (~$590).
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.82
Fundamental deterioration (catastrophic $764M loss on $237M revenue, negative ROE), technical breakdown (bearish MACD, price below key MAs, MFI at 0.54), negative sentiment (ARK Invest selling), and regulatory overhang all align bearishly. Capital preservation mandates full exit.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
The committee acknowledges Alphabet's strong fundamentals and AI validation but recommends deferring new buys due to extreme overbought technicals (RSI >72, KDJ >80) and asymmetric risk ahead of imminent earnings. Capital should be preserved to secure a more favorable entry post-earnings.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The decision synthesizes strong fundamental growth (36% revenue growth, expanding gross margins to ~65%), near-term catalysts (Zenith launch, patent victory), and a technical consolidation phase rather than a downtrend. A defined risk management plan with a stop-loss below key support addresses volatility concerns while positioning for upside.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Strong fundamental momentum with exceptional earnings growth and margin expansion justifies a decisive entry ahead of full technical confirmation. Valuation concerns are mitigated by growth prospects and prudent position sizing.
Weight: 8.6989%
Weight: 4.2508%
Weight: 4.235%
Weight: 3.8151%
Weight: 3.8127%
Weight: 3.662%
Weight: 3.6596%
Weight: 3.6077%
Weight: 3.0269%
Weight: 2.9619%
Weight: 2.5998%
Weight: 2.2936%
Weight: 2.1797%
Weight: 1.8571%
Weight: 1.7553%
Weight: 1.7402%
Weight: 1.7041%
Weight: 1.5914%
Weight: 1.5529%
Weight: 1.5098%
Weight: 1.4564%
Weight: 1.3712%
Weight: 1.3409%
Weight: 1.3244%
Weight: 1.3079%
Weight: 1.3037%
Weight: 1.2119%
Weight: 1.1369%
Weight: 1.1116%
Weight: 1.0862%
| Stock | Weight |
|---|---|
Tesla Inc USTSLA | 8.70% |
Shopify Inc USSHOP | 4.25% |
Roku Inc USROKU | 4.24% |
Coinbase Global Inc USCOIN | 3.82% |
3.81% | |
CRISPR Therapeutics AG USCRSP | 3.66% |
3.66% | |
Robinhood Markets Inc USHOOD | 3.61% |
Teradyne Inc USTER | 3.03% |
Tempus AI Inc USTEM | 2.96% |
ROBLOX Corp USRBLX | 2.60% |
Beam Therapeutics Inc USBEAM | 2.29% |
2.18% | |
Amazon.com Inc USAMZN | 1.86% |
Archer Aviation Inc USACHR | 1.76% |
1.74% | |
1.70% | |
Twist Bioscience Corp USTWST | 1.59% |
NVIDIA Corp USNVDA | 1.55% |
1.51% | |
Block Inc USXYZ | 1.46% |
10X Genomics Inc USTXG | 1.37% |
Illumina Inc USILMN | 1.34% |
ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF USARKB | 1.32% |
Meta Platforms Inc USMETA | 1.31% |
Deere & Co USDE | 1.30% |
Bullish USBLSH | 1.21% |
Alphabet Inc USGOOG | 1.14% |
Natera Inc USNTRA | 1.11% |
Veracyte Inc USVCYT | 1.09% |
DraftKings Inc USDKNG | 1.04% |
Rocket Lab Corp USRKLB | 1.03% |
1.01% | |
Baidu Inc USBIDU | 1.00% |
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.75
Imminent supply overhang from CEO's share registration (304M shares) acts as a powerful near-term catalyst, occurring within a context of extreme valuation fragility (P/E 412), deteriorating fundamentals, and trendless, vulnerable price action. The probability of a downward move outweighs the potential for a breakout.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Confluence of strong fundamentals (>25% revenue growth), extreme bearish sentiment (Put/Call ratio 5.19), a clear imminent earnings catalyst, and technically defined risk creates a high-conviction asymmetric opportunity. Conservative risks are managed via position sizing and a strict stop-loss.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The decision is based on a fundamental inflection point (surpassing 100 million active accounts granting pricing power), bullish technical alignment (Golden Cross, price above all key moving averages), and recent analyst upgrades. Risks from high valuation and volatility are managed through disciplined entry, a stop-loss, and controlled position size.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.75
The Risk Management Committee recommends selling due to an asymmetric risk profile. A severe, company-specific $2.2B New York lawsuit creates an existential overhang not fully priced in, compounded by a rich valuation (P/E ~40x vs. fundamental value of $87-$121), declining earnings, and weak technicals showing distribution and overhead supply from underwater holders. The stock's high correlation to Bitcoin acts as a downside amplifier in this context.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Strong business fundamentals (56% revenue growth, expanding margins) justify maintaining exposure, but extreme valuation (Forward P/E 783, P/S 76) and weak technicals (ADX 4.82, 73% of traders underwater at $150) require active risk management. A conditional hold with defined entry/exit rules balances growth potential with valuation risk.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
Technical breakdown (11.3% drop on high volume, below all moving averages, 91% holders underwater) combined with dire fundamentals ($581.6M net loss, revenue down 90%) creates unfavorable risk/reward. Upcoming binary catalysts are low-probability events, and capital preservation is prioritized over speculative upside.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.8
The committee recommends selling due to extreme overvaluation (Forward P/E 250), severely overbought technicals (RSI >80, bearish MFI divergence), and concrete negative catalysts (Northland downgrade to $260, ARK selling, sector ETF breakdown). The high probability of a sharp correction outweighs the potential for further gains in the near term. Capital preservation is prioritized, with a plan to re-enter at a healthier valuation.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends a moderate-sized long position based on the confluence of a structural regulatory catalyst (PDT rule elimination), strong fundamentals (>50% revenue growth, 42% net margins), a high-conviction analyst target ($110), and a constructive technical pullback. While earnings present binary risk, the defined stop-loss at $79.50 manages downside, and the upside potential from a narrative re-rating justifies the action.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
Committee overrules aggressive and neutral stances due to extreme valuation (P/E 118), technical exhaustion (shooting star on high volume), and asymmetric risk from imminent high-expectation earnings event. Holding through earnings is a speculative gamble with downside significantly outweighing upside. Prudent action is to eliminate event risk and preserve capital.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends a full exit before Q1 2026 earnings due to an unacceptable risk-reward profile. Key factors include high debt (78.4% Debt/Assets), lack of profitability (-$245M net loss), rich valuation (P/S 7.43), weakening technicals (price below key MAs, bearish KDJ crossover), and a high-stakes binary earnings catalyst. Holding or trimming retains exposure to asymmetric downside risk with limited upside potential.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
The Risk Management Committee mandates a SELL based on an asymmetric risk profile skewed to the downside. Key factors include severe fundamental weaknesses (96% Debt-to-Asset ratio, negative equity, liquidity strain), imminent negative catalysts (Q1 2026 earnings risk, federal lawsuit), and a bearish technical structure (price below all key moving averages). Capital preservation is the primary objective, and holding exposes the position to unacceptable, high-probability downside risks.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The Risk Management Committee recommends BUY based on transformed fundamentals: $500M non-dilutive financing eliminates cash risk until 2029, BEAM-302's accelerated clinical pathway (skipping Phase II), and platform validation. Recent price weakness near key support presents an optimal entry point before H2 2026 catalyst cycle.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.82
The decision is based on severe fundamental deterioration (95.77% Debt/Assets, swing to net loss), immediate negative catalyst (class action lawsuit attacking core business), technical breakdown below all key moving averages, unsustainable valuation (Forward P/E 102.18), and competitive pressure from Tether. The conservative risk assessment aligns with the objective data, indicating high probability of further downside.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Stock is in a strong uptrend with excellent fundamentals (31% net income growth, $110.5B operating cash flow) and positive AI/cloud narrative, but is currently overbought (RSI 75.55) and trading at the upper end of its fair value range ahead of a high-impact earnings event. Active risk management via trailing stop-loss is recommended for existing positions, while new capital should wait for post-earnings price action.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.75
Convergence of catastrophic fundamentals (pre-revenue, -$618M net income, severe cash burn), bearish technical structure (price below key moving averages, weak momentum), and negative market sentiment ('sell the news' reaction to milestones) justifies a tactical short position. The downside target is clear while upside is limited by resistance.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
The committee recommends a full exit due to extreme overvaluation (P/E >500, P/S 18), a broken technical picture (death cross, 93% holders underwater), and the stock's failure to rally on positive catalysts like the $447M Space Force contract. The risk of multiple contraction and continued decline outweighs the limited, capped upside.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
The stock exhibits a strong bullish trend with institutional accumulation and a compelling long-term growth narrative in synthetic biology infrastructure. However, current price is overbought with extreme valuation (P/S 36) and high percentage of holders in profit, creating asymmetric risk. A disciplined approach of holding existing positions with a trailing stop-loss while waiting for a pullback for new entries balances trend participation with risk management.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
NVIDIA's exceptional fundamentals and dominant AI position support a long-term hold, but extreme valuation (forward P/E 64x) and overbought technicals (RSI 76) create high short-term risk. An active hold with risk management is recommended over new purchases at current price.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
Partial sale (40-50%) recommended due to overvaluation (price 4.4% above fair value upper bound), extreme technical overbought signals (RSI 78.65, CCI 217), and skewed risk-reward. Maintains exposure to long-term AI growth while locking in profits and preparing for better entry.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Strategic investments explain net income decline; Uber partnership is a significant multi-quarter catalyst; bullish technical structure with manageable risk via scaled entry and tight stop-loss.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.75
Technical breakdown with 18% drop in 5 days, high-volume distribution indicating institutional selling, sector vulnerability demonstrated by 5.4% drop on Thermo Fisher news, and fundamental mismatch with 4.39x P/S ratio despite only 5.25% revenue growth and negative profitability.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends a disciplined, conditional Hold due to high leverage (62.9% debt-to-asset), premium valuation, and binary earnings risk. For existing holders, maintain with a stop-loss at $124.50 and consider partial profit-taking near resistance. For new capital, wait for a confirmed breakout above $135.50 on volume post-earnings or a pullback to $118-$120 support.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
The market is in a consolidation phase awaiting a catalyst. Price is compressed between major resistance (~$26.27) and strong support ($24.50-$25.00). A tactical Hold with defined triggers is recommended: maintain existing positions with a tightened stop-loss, wait for either a confirmed breakout above $26.50 or a pullback to support before new entry.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.75
Convergence of high-impact catalyst (blocked $2B AI acquisition by China) with vulnerable market positioning (91.95% shareholders in profit) creates asymmetric downside risk ahead of earnings. Material geopolitical event triggers profit-taking pressure amid fundamental deterioration (declining net income).
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends HOLD for existing positions due to Deere's underlying quality (high ROE, resolved legal overhang) and defined downside risk via a $515 stop-loss. However, a BUY is not advised for new capital as the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with premium valuation, negative earnings momentum, and significant overhead resistance. New entries should wait for either a pullback to strong support ($515-$530) or a confirmed technical reversal above the 60-day MA (~$590).
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.82
Fundamental deterioration (catastrophic $764M loss on $237M revenue, negative ROE), technical breakdown (bearish MACD, price below key MAs, MFI at 0.54), negative sentiment (ARK Invest selling), and regulatory overhang all align bearishly. Capital preservation mandates full exit.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
The committee acknowledges Alphabet's strong fundamentals and AI validation but recommends deferring new buys due to extreme overbought technicals (RSI >72, KDJ >80) and asymmetric risk ahead of imminent earnings. Capital should be preserved to secure a more favorable entry post-earnings.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The decision synthesizes strong fundamental growth (36% revenue growth, expanding gross margins to ~65%), near-term catalysts (Zenith launch, patent victory), and a technical consolidation phase rather than a downtrend. A defined risk management plan with a stop-loss below key support addresses volatility concerns while positioning for upside.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Strong fundamental momentum with exceptional earnings growth and margin expansion justifies a decisive entry ahead of full technical confirmation. Valuation concerns are mitigated by growth prospects and prudent position sizing.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Fundamental inflection point with shift to profitability, regulatory risks considered priced-in after 27% decline, technical momentum aligning with fundamentals. Scaled entry recommended to manage risk.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
The Risk Management Committee recommends SELL due to extreme overvaluation (P/S ratio of 78.76), high profit-taking risk with 80.41% of holders in profit, and unfavorable technical structure following a rejection at $93. The primary rationale is capital preservation, as the asymmetric downside risk outweighs potential upside.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
Financial deterioration is severe and accelerating (39% YoY loss increase, negative gross margins). Market sentiment has shifted from narrative to substance, evidenced by 7.1% drop on positive platform news due to worse loss forecast. Cash burn rate threatens future dilution. The fundamental risk outweighs long-term technological potential.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.78
The committee validated the original sell recommendation based on catastrophic fundamental deterioration (76.5% net income drop), dangerously high valuation (P/E 45.45), weak technical momentum (low ADX), negative sentiment from quantitative models, and the speculative nature of the AI turnaround narrative. The risk-reward profile is decisively skewed to the downside.
The Risk Management Committee recommends BUY based on transformed fundamentals: $500M non-dilutive financing eliminates cash risk until 2029, BEAM-302's accelerated clinical pathway (skipping Phase II), and platform validation. Recent price weakness near key support presents an optimal entry point before H2 2026 catalyst cycle.