US 13F institution Situational Awareness LP (CIK:0002045724) holdings data for Q4 2025 13F
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Hold existing positions with a trailing stop-loss at $185 to protect gains while allowing participation in the long-term AI power narrative. Avoid new purchases at current overbought levels; wait for a pullback to $185-$195 for better risk/reward entry.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.75
Committee decision based on existential financial risk: 93.24% Debt-to-Asset ratio and 0.46 Current Ratio indicate severe solvency/liquidity danger. Valuation assumes flawless execution of $88B backlog while company shows -$1.17B net losses. Extreme overbought conditions (RSI-6 80.44, 81.29% holders in profit) create asymmetric downside risk.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
Stock is in extreme technical exhaustion (RSI 78, KDJ >90) with fundamental valuation disconnect (P/S 13.47 on $18.76B net loss) facing binary earnings risk after 71% pre-run. Selling proactively ahead of earnings to avoid asymmetric downside risk and target re-entry at $55.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
Extreme valuation disconnect (1044x forward P/E), catastrophic asymmetric risk profile (95%+ downside vs <40% upside), weak underlying profitability, high debt, NVIDIA concentration risk, and technical exhaustion with 86% of shares held at profit after a 1500%+ rally.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.78
The company has existential balance sheet risk with 141% debt-to-asset ratio and negative shareholder equity. The core Bitcoin mining business is collapsing while the AI pivot narrative lacks substantive contracts. Current price reflects speculative exhaustion with extreme overbought technicals (RSI 87.45), creating asymmetric downside risk.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.8
Sell recommendation based on confluence of technical exhaustion (RSI 80.28, 90% holders in profit) and extreme fundamental risk (Forward P/E 225.99, P/S 37.62). Lock in profits now to avoid near-certain correction and preserve capital for potential re-entry at lower, less risky levels after company demonstrates execution progress.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.78
Fundamental risks outweigh speculative growth potential. Persistent profitability issues, extreme valuation (P/S 47), critical customer concentration with CoreWeave, high financial leverage, and overbought technicals with 94.6% holders in profit create unsustainable risk. Price at resistance with weak trend strength (ADX 11.35) suggests mean reversion likely.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.65
The committee recommends a Buy based on the asymmetric, time-bound convergence of two catalysts: 1) The Nasdaq-100 inclusion provides a near-term, non-discretionary source of massive buying pressure that can overwhelm overbought technicals. 2) The gross margin surge from 16% to 30% signals a fundamental inflection and rapid path to profitability, which the market is front-running. While valuation is high and the stock is overbought after a 287% YTD rally, the primary bullish trend and structural catalyst override these concerns for a tactical trade. Risk is managed via a scaled entry and a strict stop-loss.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The stock is undergoing a fundamental transformation from a speculative Bitcoin miner to an infrastructure company with a secured 15-year hyperscaler lease, justifying a market re-rating. High-volume breakout confirms institutional recognition of this inflection point. The primary risk is execution, which is mitigated by a staged entry plan and defined stop-loss.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends Hold due to severe near-term risks (152x forward P/E, bearish technicals, low gas prices) balanced against the transformative long-term value of the 20-year LNG deal. For existing holders, implement a stop-loss to manage downside while maintaining exposure to potential upside. New buyers should wait for either a technical reversal above $61.70 post-earnings or a washout to the $50-$54 support zone.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
Extreme valuation (forward P/E 819.55), overbought technical indicators (RSI 86.25), 100% profit ratio creating fragile support, and price significantly above analyst fair value of $284.25. The risk of a sharp correction outweighs potential upside momentum.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
Extreme valuation (forward P/E 185), severe overbought technical conditions (84.5% holders in profit, KDJ J-line 97.81), high financial leverage (61.4% debt-to-asset), and asymmetric risk/reward with minimal upside vs. 36%+ downside justify decisive risk reduction.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.8
The committee recommends a full sell due to an unacceptable risk profile: extreme valuation (trading at ~4x fundamental value), existential legal threat from GlobalFoundries lawsuit (potential U.S. import ban), severely overbought technical conditions, and 100% of holders in profit. Capital preservation is prioritized over speculative upside.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
The committee recommends selling due to catastrophic financials (annual net loss of -$663.18M, negative margins), distress-funded Bitcoin liquidation to fund a speculative AI pivot with no track record and distant 2027 target, and severely overbought technical conditions (KDJ >80, RSI 76) with price testing a dense supply zone where 96% of positions are in profit. The current price is sustained by narrative hype disconnected from fundamental reality.
Weight: 15.8699%
Weight: 14.0377%
Weight: 13.5362%
Weight: 8.675%
Weight: 7.5895%
Weight: 5.9568%
Weight: 5.0398%
Weight: 4.5361%
Weight: 2.801%
Weight: 2.4117%
Weight: 1.6069%
Weight: 1.5553%
Weight: 1.5389%
Weight: 1.4165%
| Stock | Weight |
|---|---|
15.87% | |
COREWEAVE INC USCRWV | 14.04% |
INTEL CORP USINTC | 13.54% |
LUMENTUM HLDGS INC USLITE | 8.68% |
CORE SCIENTIFIC INC NEW USCORZ | 7.59% |
IREN LIMITED USIREN | 5.96% |
APPLIED DIGITAL CORP USAPLD | 5.04% |
SANDISK CORP USSNDK | 4.54% |
CIPHER MINING INC USCIFR | 2.80% |
EQT CORP USEQT | 2.41% |
COHERENT CORP USCOHR | 1.61% |
1.56% | |
TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR LTD USTSEM | 1.54% |
RIOT PLATFORMS INC USRIOT | 1.42% |
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Hold existing positions with a trailing stop-loss at $185 to protect gains while allowing participation in the long-term AI power narrative. Avoid new purchases at current overbought levels; wait for a pullback to $185-$195 for better risk/reward entry.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.75
Committee decision based on existential financial risk: 93.24% Debt-to-Asset ratio and 0.46 Current Ratio indicate severe solvency/liquidity danger. Valuation assumes flawless execution of $88B backlog while company shows -$1.17B net losses. Extreme overbought conditions (RSI-6 80.44, 81.29% holders in profit) create asymmetric downside risk.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
Stock is in extreme technical exhaustion (RSI 78, KDJ >90) with fundamental valuation disconnect (P/S 13.47 on $18.76B net loss) facing binary earnings risk after 71% pre-run. Selling proactively ahead of earnings to avoid asymmetric downside risk and target re-entry at $55.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
Extreme valuation disconnect (1044x forward P/E), catastrophic asymmetric risk profile (95%+ downside vs <40% upside), weak underlying profitability, high debt, NVIDIA concentration risk, and technical exhaustion with 86% of shares held at profit after a 1500%+ rally.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.78
The company has existential balance sheet risk with 141% debt-to-asset ratio and negative shareholder equity. The core Bitcoin mining business is collapsing while the AI pivot narrative lacks substantive contracts. Current price reflects speculative exhaustion with extreme overbought technicals (RSI 87.45), creating asymmetric downside risk.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.8
Sell recommendation based on confluence of technical exhaustion (RSI 80.28, 90% holders in profit) and extreme fundamental risk (Forward P/E 225.99, P/S 37.62). Lock in profits now to avoid near-certain correction and preserve capital for potential re-entry at lower, less risky levels after company demonstrates execution progress.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.78
Fundamental risks outweigh speculative growth potential. Persistent profitability issues, extreme valuation (P/S 47), critical customer concentration with CoreWeave, high financial leverage, and overbought technicals with 94.6% holders in profit create unsustainable risk. Price at resistance with weak trend strength (ADX 11.35) suggests mean reversion likely.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.65
The committee recommends a Buy based on the asymmetric, time-bound convergence of two catalysts: 1) The Nasdaq-100 inclusion provides a near-term, non-discretionary source of massive buying pressure that can overwhelm overbought technicals. 2) The gross margin surge from 16% to 30% signals a fundamental inflection and rapid path to profitability, which the market is front-running. While valuation is high and the stock is overbought after a 287% YTD rally, the primary bullish trend and structural catalyst override these concerns for a tactical trade. Risk is managed via a scaled entry and a strict stop-loss.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The stock is undergoing a fundamental transformation from a speculative Bitcoin miner to an infrastructure company with a secured 15-year hyperscaler lease, justifying a market re-rating. High-volume breakout confirms institutional recognition of this inflection point. The primary risk is execution, which is mitigated by a staged entry plan and defined stop-loss.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends Hold due to severe near-term risks (152x forward P/E, bearish technicals, low gas prices) balanced against the transformative long-term value of the 20-year LNG deal. For existing holders, implement a stop-loss to manage downside while maintaining exposure to potential upside. New buyers should wait for either a technical reversal above $61.70 post-earnings or a washout to the $50-$54 support zone.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
Extreme valuation (forward P/E 819.55), overbought technical indicators (RSI 86.25), 100% profit ratio creating fragile support, and price significantly above analyst fair value of $284.25. The risk of a sharp correction outweighs potential upside momentum.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
Extreme valuation (forward P/E 185), severe overbought technical conditions (84.5% holders in profit, KDJ J-line 97.81), high financial leverage (61.4% debt-to-asset), and asymmetric risk/reward with minimal upside vs. 36%+ downside justify decisive risk reduction.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.8
The committee recommends a full sell due to an unacceptable risk profile: extreme valuation (trading at ~4x fundamental value), existential legal threat from GlobalFoundries lawsuit (potential U.S. import ban), severely overbought technical conditions, and 100% of holders in profit. Capital preservation is prioritized over speculative upside.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
The committee recommends selling due to catastrophic financials (annual net loss of -$663.18M, negative margins), distress-funded Bitcoin liquidation to fund a speculative AI pivot with no track record and distant 2027 target, and severely overbought technical conditions (KDJ >80, RSI 76) with price testing a dense supply zone where 96% of positions are in profit. The current price is sustained by narrative hype disconnected from fundamental reality.
The stock is undergoing a fundamental transformation from a speculative Bitcoin miner to an infrastructure company with a secured 15-year hyperscaler lease, justifying a market re-rating. High-volume breakout confirms institutional recognition of this inflection point. The primary risk is execution, which is mitigated by a staged entry plan and defined stop-loss.