US 13F institution Duquesne Family Office LLC (CIK:0001536411) holdings data for Q3 2025 13F
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Fundamental growth story is compelling (revenue growth, margin expansion, strategic catalysts), but current technical picture shows a trendless, high-volatility consolidation (ADX: 8.32, price below 60-day MA). Entering now carries high and poorly defined risk. Decision is to defer the buy action and wait for a confirmed technical signal (daily close above 60-day SMA ~$207.24 and ADX >15) to align price action with the fundamental thesis.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Catalyst-driven tactical buy based on sNDA submission for Arikayce label expansion in H2 2026, with strong institutional validation and asymmetric risk/reward. Position requires strict risk management due to binary event dependency and current technical downtrend.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.65
The long-term transformation thesis is credible, but current price ($32.40) is above the safe entry zone ($30.50-$31.50) and technical indicators show overbought conditions (RSI(6) at 74.16). The extreme debt load (80.58% debt-to-assets) and rich valuation (P/E ~24.6) warrant caution. Decision is to hold existing positions and wait for a pullback to initiate new buys.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.78
The Risk Management Committee approved a BUY recommendation based on a fundamental regime shift confirmed by TSM's Q1 2026 results (58% profit growth) and increased CAPEX guidance (~$56B), signaling confidence in sustained AI/HPC demand. While acknowledging short-term overbought and valuation risks, the decision prioritizes capturing the momentum shift. The execution plan uses a scaled entry strategy to manage these risks.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Fundamental re-rating driven by RBC Capital's $450 target based on the LEAP/GTF engine aftermarket cycle, with strong technical support providing a defined risk framework. High valuation is justified by forward-looking earnings shift, and risk is managed via a stop-loss below key support.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
The long-term bullish trend driven by the NVIDIA AI partnership and institutional accumulation is intact, but current valuation (P/E 171) and technicals (RSI-6 at 87) indicate high short-term risk. A structured, risk-managed hold with defined exit and entry points is recommended to capture upside while limiting downside.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends a Buy based on strong institutional conviction (>$77M post-drop), a bullish long-term strategic narrative (massive Brazil investment building a competitive moat), and constructive technical structure. A phased entry plan with a strict stop-loss is adopted to manage near-term overbought and valuation risks.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.8
Confluence of technical breakdown (price below all key MAs, 78% holders underwater creating resistance at $46.50-$47), fundamental deterioration (net income -71% YoY, current ratio 0.73), and negative catalyst (Citi downgrade). Risk/reward is unfavorable with limited upside (~3%) versus substantial downside (8-10%).
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
The risk-reward profile is highly asymmetric with less than 1% upside to the $107 offer price versus a potential 50%+ downside if the Merck acquisition fails. The critical information on the deal's regulatory status is 6 months stale, creating an unacceptable information void. The current price of ~$106.79 leaves minimal arbitrage spread, and the inflated P/B ratio of 33x is propped up by takeover premium, not fundamentals. The risk of a deal break, while low probability, carries catastrophic downside, making the trade's expected value negative. The conservative, risk-managed action is to exit.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Active hold to await a better entry price. The committee acknowledges the bullish macro thesis (weakening USD as a tailwind for EM) and high-volume breakout but rejects buying at the current overbought level (~$63.64) due to extreme RSI/KDJ readings and a high profit ratio (89%) inviting profit-taking. Capital is preserved to execute a disciplined, conditional buy at a refined, deeper support zone.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.85
Strong fundamental acceleration (31% net income growth), high-conviction technical breakout from consolidation, positive catalysts (AWS-Fox deal, Globalstar acquisition), and bullish market environment justify the buy decision. Overbought conditions are acknowledged but mitigated by disciplined entry in the $245–$248 zone and a defined stop-loss.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends a tactical sell (40% reduction) due to extreme overbought conditions (RSI ~89), asymmetric downside risk ahead of earnings, and unsustainable valuation (P/E 186). The goal is to preserve capital from a high-probability technical correction while maintaining exposure for the long-term $132 target.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
Aggregate evidence supports a risk-off decision due to extreme valuation (forward P/E of 751), technically overbought conditions at resistance, insider selling, and sector volatility, despite strong growth narrative.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
Extreme overvaluation (P/E 30.71), deteriorating fundamentals (-24% net income YoY), dangerous financial leverage (79.86% Debt/Assets), and asymmetric risk/reward (11:1 downside/upside) outweigh speculative turnaround narrative.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.8
The company faces existential financial risk with a $1.9B annual loss, -114.84% ROE, and critical liquidity constraints. The recent price bounce is identified as a technical trap (dead-cat bounce/short-covering rally) near resistance at the average holder cost of $7.08-$7.25. StubHub lacks the capital to capitalize on the Live Nation verdict catalyst, making the fundamental risk catastrophic.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.72
Stock is significantly overvalued (P/E 38.6 vs fair value $205-$240) with asymmetric downside risk ahead of Q1 earnings. Technicals show distribution patterns and weak trend strength. Full exit recommended to protect capital and seek better re-entry post-earnings.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Fundamental regime shift from geopolitical de-escalation justifies a durable re-rating, outweighing near-term overbought technical risks. A scaled entry strategy is recommended to capitalize on the bullish trend while managing volatility.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Stock is overbought (RSI_6 89, KDJ >106) with a confirmed layoff event on May 20 creating near-term risk, but long-term AI fundamentals (Broadcom partnership) remain strong. Recommendation is to hold existing positions and use tiered limit buys on pullback to improve risk/reward.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.75
Committee decision based on extreme overvaluation (177x P/S), critical data gap from ACC.26 presentation, high profit concentration (94.75% holders in profit) creating downside vulnerability, historical risks of CETP inhibitor class, and imminent dilution risk. Asymmetric risk skewed to the downside warrants capital preservation.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.72
Market narrative shift from geopolitical crisis to domestic earnings focus benefits US-centric Russell 2000. Technical breakout confirmed by volume with bullish trend alignment. Entry planned on tactical pullback to manage overbought conditions.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.8
The stock is severely overvalued (P/E 45, P/S 15) and technically overbought (RSI >70, 99.75% holders in profit), trading 12% above consensus target. A full sell proactively locks in profits before a high-probability correction, with re-entry planned at a more rational valuation level.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Strong fundamental catalyst from Q1 2026 earnings justifies a bullish thesis, but extreme overbought technical indicators (RSI ~80, 99.56% holders in profit) make immediate entry risky. The recommendation is to hold existing positions and only initiate a new buy on a specific pullback to improve risk/reward.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Bullish trend intact with fundamental profitability inflection and AI growth narrative, but current price offers poor risk/reward due to extreme valuation (P/E 535), overbought technicals (RSI ~74), and 99.96% of holders in profit creating overhead supply risk. Active risk-managed hold with stop-loss advised.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends a BUY based on a confirmed technical breakout on high volume, a fundamental catalyst from a clean Q1 2026 earnings beat, and supportive macro sentiment. However, execution is disciplined: entry is advised only on a pullback to the $52.50-$53.00 zone to avoid chasing the overbought short-term momentum, with a stop-loss below key support to manage risk.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.75
Fundamental inflection to profitability, strong institutional accumulation, and technical recovery from panic low create a high-probability asymmetric opportunity. A phased entry strategy balances conviction with risk management.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends Hold due to severe near-term risks (152x forward P/E, bearish technicals, low gas prices) balanced against the transformative long-term value of the 20-year LNG deal. For existing holders, implement a stop-loss to manage downside while maintaining exposure to potential upside. New buyers should wait for either a technical reversal above $61.70 post-earnings or a washout to the $50-$54 support zone.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.8
Convergence of extreme overbought conditions (RSI 77.89, 99.92% holders in profit), severe overvaluation (P/E 49.4x vs. fair value $619-$796), a material negative catalyst (Vineyard Wind lawsuit with ~$545M liability), and a negative earnings ESP creates asymmetric downside risk. The risk/reward favors selling to capture a high-probability correction.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Long-term fundamentals are compelling (infrastructure spending, data center boom), but near-term risks are elevated due to overbought technicals (RSI_6: 68.16), high valuation (24x P/E at top of fair value range), and binary earnings event risk with triple-digit EPS growth expectations already priced in. The committee recommends holding existing positions but deferring new buys until after earnings, awaiting either a confirmed breakout above $121.50 or a pullback to support.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The $4 billion debt refinancing and investment-grade upgrade represent a fundamental inflection point that lowers cost of capital and de-risks the balance sheet. Combined with AI/data center power demand tailwinds and technical breakout potential, this justifies a forward-looking valuation premium.
Weight: 12.7386%
Weight: 8.5918%
Weight: 8.252%
Weight: 5.2605%
Weight: 3.9382%
Weight: 3.6727%
Weight: 3.3566%
Weight: 2.9921%
Weight: 2.6325%
Weight: 2.4978%
Weight: 2.3626%
Weight: 2.0273%
Weight: 1.8953%
Weight: 1.7865%
Weight: 1.7659%
Weight: 1.4925%
Weight: 1.476%
Weight: 1.3758%
Weight: 1.3469%
Weight: 1.3462%
Weight: 1.3301%
Weight: 1.2865%
Weight: 1.2636%
Weight: 1.2564%
Weight: 1.2065%
Weight: 1.1992%
Weight: 1.1705%
Weight: 1.1625%
Weight: 1.1286%
| Stock | Weight |
|---|---|
Natera Inc USNTRA | 12.74% |
Insmed Inc USINSM | 8.59% |
8.25% | |
5.26% | |
Woodward Inc USWWD | 3.94% |
Coupang Inc USCPNG | 3.67% |
Mercadolibre Inc USMELI | 3.36% |
Docusign Inc USDOCU | 2.99% |
Verona Pharma Plc USVRNA | 2.63% |
Ishares Tr USEEM | 2.50% |
Amazon Com Inc USAMZN | 2.36% |
Roku Inc USROKU | 2.03% |
1.90% | |
1.79% | |
Stubhub Hldgs Inc USSTUB | 1.77% |
Wabtec USWAB | 1.49% |
Spdr S&P 500 Etf Tr USSPY | 1.48% |
Meta Platforms Inc USMETA | 1.38% |
1.35% | |
Ishares Tr USIWM | 1.35% |
1.33% | |
1.29% | |
Twilio Inc USTWLO | 1.26% |
Bank America Corp USBAC | 1.26% |
Sea Ltd USSE | 1.21% |
Eqt Corp USEQT | 1.20% |
Ge Vernova Inc USGEV | 1.17% |
Crh Plc USCRH | 1.16% |
Vistra Corp USVST | 1.13% |
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Fundamental growth story is compelling (revenue growth, margin expansion, strategic catalysts), but current technical picture shows a trendless, high-volatility consolidation (ADX: 8.32, price below 60-day MA). Entering now carries high and poorly defined risk. Decision is to defer the buy action and wait for a confirmed technical signal (daily close above 60-day SMA ~$207.24 and ADX >15) to align price action with the fundamental thesis.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Catalyst-driven tactical buy based on sNDA submission for Arikayce label expansion in H2 2026, with strong institutional validation and asymmetric risk/reward. Position requires strict risk management due to binary event dependency and current technical downtrend.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.65
The long-term transformation thesis is credible, but current price ($32.40) is above the safe entry zone ($30.50-$31.50) and technical indicators show overbought conditions (RSI(6) at 74.16). The extreme debt load (80.58% debt-to-assets) and rich valuation (P/E ~24.6) warrant caution. Decision is to hold existing positions and wait for a pullback to initiate new buys.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.78
The Risk Management Committee approved a BUY recommendation based on a fundamental regime shift confirmed by TSM's Q1 2026 results (58% profit growth) and increased CAPEX guidance (~$56B), signaling confidence in sustained AI/HPC demand. While acknowledging short-term overbought and valuation risks, the decision prioritizes capturing the momentum shift. The execution plan uses a scaled entry strategy to manage these risks.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Fundamental re-rating driven by RBC Capital's $450 target based on the LEAP/GTF engine aftermarket cycle, with strong technical support providing a defined risk framework. High valuation is justified by forward-looking earnings shift, and risk is managed via a stop-loss below key support.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
The long-term bullish trend driven by the NVIDIA AI partnership and institutional accumulation is intact, but current valuation (P/E 171) and technicals (RSI-6 at 87) indicate high short-term risk. A structured, risk-managed hold with defined exit and entry points is recommended to capture upside while limiting downside.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends a Buy based on strong institutional conviction (>$77M post-drop), a bullish long-term strategic narrative (massive Brazil investment building a competitive moat), and constructive technical structure. A phased entry plan with a strict stop-loss is adopted to manage near-term overbought and valuation risks.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.8
Confluence of technical breakdown (price below all key MAs, 78% holders underwater creating resistance at $46.50-$47), fundamental deterioration (net income -71% YoY, current ratio 0.73), and negative catalyst (Citi downgrade). Risk/reward is unfavorable with limited upside (~3%) versus substantial downside (8-10%).
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
The risk-reward profile is highly asymmetric with less than 1% upside to the $107 offer price versus a potential 50%+ downside if the Merck acquisition fails. The critical information on the deal's regulatory status is 6 months stale, creating an unacceptable information void. The current price of ~$106.79 leaves minimal arbitrage spread, and the inflated P/B ratio of 33x is propped up by takeover premium, not fundamentals. The risk of a deal break, while low probability, carries catastrophic downside, making the trade's expected value negative. The conservative, risk-managed action is to exit.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Active hold to await a better entry price. The committee acknowledges the bullish macro thesis (weakening USD as a tailwind for EM) and high-volume breakout but rejects buying at the current overbought level (~$63.64) due to extreme RSI/KDJ readings and a high profit ratio (89%) inviting profit-taking. Capital is preserved to execute a disciplined, conditional buy at a refined, deeper support zone.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.85
Strong fundamental acceleration (31% net income growth), high-conviction technical breakout from consolidation, positive catalysts (AWS-Fox deal, Globalstar acquisition), and bullish market environment justify the buy decision. Overbought conditions are acknowledged but mitigated by disciplined entry in the $245–$248 zone and a defined stop-loss.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends a tactical sell (40% reduction) due to extreme overbought conditions (RSI ~89), asymmetric downside risk ahead of earnings, and unsustainable valuation (P/E 186). The goal is to preserve capital from a high-probability technical correction while maintaining exposure for the long-term $132 target.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
Aggregate evidence supports a risk-off decision due to extreme valuation (forward P/E of 751), technically overbought conditions at resistance, insider selling, and sector volatility, despite strong growth narrative.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
Extreme overvaluation (P/E 30.71), deteriorating fundamentals (-24% net income YoY), dangerous financial leverage (79.86% Debt/Assets), and asymmetric risk/reward (11:1 downside/upside) outweigh speculative turnaround narrative.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.8
The company faces existential financial risk with a $1.9B annual loss, -114.84% ROE, and critical liquidity constraints. The recent price bounce is identified as a technical trap (dead-cat bounce/short-covering rally) near resistance at the average holder cost of $7.08-$7.25. StubHub lacks the capital to capitalize on the Live Nation verdict catalyst, making the fundamental risk catastrophic.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.72
Stock is significantly overvalued (P/E 38.6 vs fair value $205-$240) with asymmetric downside risk ahead of Q1 earnings. Technicals show distribution patterns and weak trend strength. Full exit recommended to protect capital and seek better re-entry post-earnings.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Fundamental regime shift from geopolitical de-escalation justifies a durable re-rating, outweighing near-term overbought technical risks. A scaled entry strategy is recommended to capitalize on the bullish trend while managing volatility.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Stock is overbought (RSI_6 89, KDJ >106) with a confirmed layoff event on May 20 creating near-term risk, but long-term AI fundamentals (Broadcom partnership) remain strong. Recommendation is to hold existing positions and use tiered limit buys on pullback to improve risk/reward.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.75
Committee decision based on extreme overvaluation (177x P/S), critical data gap from ACC.26 presentation, high profit concentration (94.75% holders in profit) creating downside vulnerability, historical risks of CETP inhibitor class, and imminent dilution risk. Asymmetric risk skewed to the downside warrants capital preservation.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.72
Market narrative shift from geopolitical crisis to domestic earnings focus benefits US-centric Russell 2000. Technical breakout confirmed by volume with bullish trend alignment. Entry planned on tactical pullback to manage overbought conditions.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.8
The stock is severely overvalued (P/E 45, P/S 15) and technically overbought (RSI >70, 99.75% holders in profit), trading 12% above consensus target. A full sell proactively locks in profits before a high-probability correction, with re-entry planned at a more rational valuation level.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Strong fundamental catalyst from Q1 2026 earnings justifies a bullish thesis, but extreme overbought technical indicators (RSI ~80, 99.56% holders in profit) make immediate entry risky. The recommendation is to hold existing positions and only initiate a new buy on a specific pullback to improve risk/reward.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Bullish trend intact with fundamental profitability inflection and AI growth narrative, but current price offers poor risk/reward due to extreme valuation (P/E 535), overbought technicals (RSI ~74), and 99.96% of holders in profit creating overhead supply risk. Active risk-managed hold with stop-loss advised.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends a BUY based on a confirmed technical breakout on high volume, a fundamental catalyst from a clean Q1 2026 earnings beat, and supportive macro sentiment. However, execution is disciplined: entry is advised only on a pullback to the $52.50-$53.00 zone to avoid chasing the overbought short-term momentum, with a stop-loss below key support to manage risk.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.75
Fundamental inflection to profitability, strong institutional accumulation, and technical recovery from panic low create a high-probability asymmetric opportunity. A phased entry strategy balances conviction with risk management.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
The committee recommends Hold due to severe near-term risks (152x forward P/E, bearish technicals, low gas prices) balanced against the transformative long-term value of the 20-year LNG deal. For existing holders, implement a stop-loss to manage downside while maintaining exposure to potential upside. New buyers should wait for either a technical reversal above $61.70 post-earnings or a washout to the $50-$54 support zone.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.8
Convergence of extreme overbought conditions (RSI 77.89, 99.92% holders in profit), severe overvaluation (P/E 49.4x vs. fair value $619-$796), a material negative catalyst (Vineyard Wind lawsuit with ~$545M liability), and a negative earnings ESP creates asymmetric downside risk. The risk/reward favors selling to capture a high-probability correction.
Action: Hold
Confidence: 0.7
Long-term fundamentals are compelling (infrastructure spending, data center boom), but near-term risks are elevated due to overbought technicals (RSI_6: 68.16), high valuation (24x P/E at top of fair value range), and binary earnings event risk with triple-digit EPS growth expectations already priced in. The committee recommends holding existing positions but deferring new buys until after earnings, awaiting either a confirmed breakout above $121.50 or a pullback to support.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The $4 billion debt refinancing and investment-grade upgrade represent a fundamental inflection point that lowers cost of capital and de-risks the balance sheet. Combined with AI/data center power demand tailwinds and technical breakout potential, this justifies a forward-looking valuation premium.
Fundamental growth story is compelling (revenue growth, margin expansion, strategic catalysts), but current technical picture shows a trendless, high-volatility consolidation (ADX: 8.32, price below 60-day MA). Entering now carries high and poorly defined risk. Decision is to defer the buy action and wait for a confirmed technical signal (daily close above 60-day SMA ~$207.24 and ADX >15) to align price action with the fundamental thesis.