US 13F institution Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. (CIK:0001336528) holdings data for Q4 2025 13F
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.75
The committee prioritizes Brookfield's transformative strategic shift, including the insurance merger creating permanent capital and growth investments in SpaceX/OpenAI, as a fundamental re-rating catalyst. While acknowledging near-term technical weakness and execution risks, a refined scaling entry strategy with widened stop-loss is implemented to capture the long-term upside while managing volatility.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.65
The decision balances strong underlying fundamentals (29% gross profit growth, margin expansion) and a strategic robotaxi catalyst against near-term earnings volatility. A conditional buy is recommended only on a confirmed breakout above resistance, with strict risk management.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.65
The Risk Management Committee recommends a tactical reduction (sell 30-50% of position) due to the confluence of a specific, material EU regulatory threat targeting AWS's core government business and a confirmed technical breakdown below all short-term moving averages on high volume. While long-term fundamentals remain strong, the premium valuation (43x forward P/E) offers no margin of safety against this near-term risk, making capital preservation the priority.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Fundamental valuation gap of ~40% based on annualized Q1 EPS and conservative forward P/E, supported by Berkshire Hathaway's strategic investment establishing a clear support floor at ~$350. Asymmetric risk/reward profile with defined downside and substantial upside justifies a scaled entry approach.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The decision is based on a fundamental dislocation where recent explosive Q1 2026 results (60.9% net income growth) contrast with a short-term technical oversold condition. The committee believes price is temporarily disconnected from verified superior business performance, creating a high-probability buying opportunity with defined risk management.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
The decision is based on excessive financial leverage (78.73% debt-to-assets), a concentrated turnaround dependent solely on Burger King U.S., severe sector headwinds (record beef costs, sluggish demand), and a confirmed technical breakdown below $74 support. The risk/reward profile is unfavorable, with limited upside to resistance and significant downside risk.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
The Risk Management Committee overrides the original Hold recommendation with a Sell decision due to overwhelming risks: 1) Critical lack of balance sheet data (debt, liquidity) for a capital-intensive real estate developer, making risk unquantifiable; 2) Severe technical breakdown with price below all key moving averages and 93% of holders underwater creating massive overhead supply; 3) The Q1 earnings beat is insufficient to offset structural headwinds and revenue miss. Capital preservation is prioritized.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
Severe fundamental overvaluation (20-35% premium to fair value of $245-$275), high debt leverage (135.81% debt-to-asset ratio), major institutional exit (Pershing Square), decelerating RevPAR growth, and technical indicators showing overbought conditions with 74% of holders in profit.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Strong fundamental acceleration (81% net income growth), strategic capital raise validated by Berkshire investment providing a floor, extreme oversold technical conditions suggesting reversal, and manageable regulatory risks create favorable asymmetric risk-reward.
Weight: 18.148%
Weight: 15.8969%
Weight: 14.283%
Weight: 12.4574%
Weight: 11.3662%
Weight: 10.0485%
Weight: 9.6854%
Weight: 5.6031%
Weight: 1.3674%
| Stock | Weight |
|---|---|
BROOKFIELD CORP USBN | 18.15% |
UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC USUBER | 15.90% |
AMAZON COM INC USAMZN | 14.28% |
ALPHABET INC USGOOG | 12.46% |
META PLATFORMS INC USMETA | 11.37% |
10.05% | |
9.69% | |
5.60% | |
ALPHABET INC USGOOGL | 1.37% |
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.75
The committee prioritizes Brookfield's transformative strategic shift, including the insurance merger creating permanent capital and growth investments in SpaceX/OpenAI, as a fundamental re-rating catalyst. While acknowledging near-term technical weakness and execution risks, a refined scaling entry strategy with widened stop-loss is implemented to capture the long-term upside while managing volatility.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.65
The decision balances strong underlying fundamentals (29% gross profit growth, margin expansion) and a strategic robotaxi catalyst against near-term earnings volatility. A conditional buy is recommended only on a confirmed breakout above resistance, with strict risk management.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.65
The Risk Management Committee recommends a tactical reduction (sell 30-50% of position) due to the confluence of a specific, material EU regulatory threat targeting AWS's core government business and a confirmed technical breakdown below all short-term moving averages on high volume. While long-term fundamentals remain strong, the premium valuation (43x forward P/E) offers no margin of safety against this near-term risk, making capital preservation the priority.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Fundamental valuation gap of ~40% based on annualized Q1 EPS and conservative forward P/E, supported by Berkshire Hathaway's strategic investment establishing a clear support floor at ~$350. Asymmetric risk/reward profile with defined downside and substantial upside justifies a scaled entry approach.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
The decision is based on a fundamental dislocation where recent explosive Q1 2026 results (60.9% net income growth) contrast with a short-term technical oversold condition. The committee believes price is temporarily disconnected from verified superior business performance, creating a high-probability buying opportunity with defined risk management.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
The decision is based on excessive financial leverage (78.73% debt-to-assets), a concentrated turnaround dependent solely on Burger King U.S., severe sector headwinds (record beef costs, sluggish demand), and a confirmed technical breakdown below $74 support. The risk/reward profile is unfavorable, with limited upside to resistance and significant downside risk.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.7
The Risk Management Committee overrides the original Hold recommendation with a Sell decision due to overwhelming risks: 1) Critical lack of balance sheet data (debt, liquidity) for a capital-intensive real estate developer, making risk unquantifiable; 2) Severe technical breakdown with price below all key moving averages and 93% of holders underwater creating massive overhead supply; 3) The Q1 earnings beat is insufficient to offset structural headwinds and revenue miss. Capital preservation is prioritized.
Action: Sell
Confidence: 0.85
Severe fundamental overvaluation (20-35% premium to fair value of $245-$275), high debt leverage (135.81% debt-to-asset ratio), major institutional exit (Pershing Square), decelerating RevPAR growth, and technical indicators showing overbought conditions with 74% of holders in profit.
Action: Buy
Confidence: 0.7
Strong fundamental acceleration (81% net income growth), strategic capital raise validated by Berkshire investment providing a floor, extreme oversold technical conditions suggesting reversal, and manageable regulatory risks create favorable asymmetric risk-reward.
The decision balances strong underlying fundamentals (29% gross profit growth, margin expansion) and a strategic robotaxi catalyst against near-term earnings volatility. A conditional buy is recommended only on a confirmed breakout above resistance, with strict risk management.